IAEA Chief: Return to JCPOA Now “Almost Impossible”

  • calendar_today August 25, 2025
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Germany, France and the United Kingdom are expected to announce the triggering of the reimposition of UN sanctions on Iran on Wednesday, three European officials told CNN.

Known as a “snapback,” the mechanism built into the 2015 Iran nuclear deal could be set in motion as early as Thursday. European leaders are expected to make their announcement in coordination with U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration.

The snapback mechanism, once set in motion, would require 30 days for the sanctions to be reimposed, providing a small window for diplomacy. European leaders hope that Tehran will use that time to reengage in meaningful negotiations, open its facilities to inspectors and take steps to return to compliance with its nuclear obligations.

Iran, however, has threatened harsh retaliation should the sanctions be reimposed. Analysts fear that a resumption of the sanctions could lead to further turmoil in the Middle East, which has been rattled by recent conflict.

Snapback Mechanism Nears End Date

Snapback is part of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), a nuclear deal negotiated between Iran and world powers. The provision grants members of the nuclear deal the authority to reimpose UN sanctions on Iran in the event of a violation.

The European powers are expected to cite Tehran’s noncompliance with the deal. Iran has moved its nuclear program well beyond the bounds of the JCPOA since the United States’ departure from the agreement under former President Donald Trump. The Trump administration had withdrawn from the JCPOA in 2018 and reimposed punishing sanctions on Tehran.

Iran’s nuclear program is growing in both size and strength, according to inspectors. Tehran has long maintained the program is for peaceful purposes, but experts say that it is inching closer to weapons-grade levels.

“It’s not possible to return to the JCPOA the way it was,” Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), told reporters on Wednesday.

Marco Rubio, U.S. Secretary of State, who met with his European counterparts this week, said the snapback sanctions were “a very powerful piece of leverage on the Iranian regime.”

Iran’s parliament had passed legislation instructing authorities to end all cooperation with international inspectors, but IAEA teams have returned to the country recently.

Grossi announced Wednesday that IAEA inspectors were in place at Bushehr nuclear power plant. Bushehr is a large power plant under IAEA safeguards and was not damaged in recent hostilities.

“We are at Bushehr,” Grossi told reporters in Washington. “Today we are inspecting Bushehr. We are continuing the conversation so that we can go to all places, including the facilities that have been attacked.”

IAEA safeguards stem from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Iran is still a signatory to the NPT, and would need to leave the treaty to end cooperation with the agency. The IAEA has not reported any movement on that front, but it is reportedly one of several options Tehran is considering in the event of a snapback.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told state-run press Wednesday that inspectors were in Bushehr to monitor the “replacement of fuel elements that had ended their cycle.” He said that the inspectors were able to monitor the plant because the Supreme National Security Council decided to allow it, but denied a new agreement for “new cooperation” with IAEA inspectors.

Fallout From Recent Conflict

Relations between Tehran and the international community have sharply deteriorated in the last few weeks.

On June 28, Israel reportedly struck several of Iran’s nuclear facilities. The strike sparked a 12-day period of conflict between the two countries, which came to a head in the final days as the United States joined the fray, firing missiles at three Iranian sites.

The IAEA had been forced to withdraw its inspectors after Israel’s initial strikes. Grossi had explained at the time that it was impossible for inspectors to monitor facilities while the country was at war.

The most significant of the sites to come under fire was Iran’s Isfahan Nuclear Technology Research Center, a location that was closed before the conflict. Satellite images released after the attack show damage to entrances and sections of the facility.

Tehran has since accused the agency of providing Israel an excuse for the attack by publicizing Iranian non-compliance with IAEA safeguard rules.

Divisions Form Inside Iran

The Iranian government has faced domestic criticism from its decision to allow the IAEA back into the country.

A member of Iran’s parliament, Kamran Ghazanfari, released a statement Wednesday against Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, after Ghalibaf said it was necessary to limit inspections to some sites. Ghazanfari accused the Speaker of an “explicit violation” of the law passed by Iran’s parliament, which suspended cooperation with the IAEA.

Iran’s parliament had moved to pass the legislation after the June hostilities broke out. It was largely passed as a defense mechanism against outside aggression and what it perceived as bias in the IAEA’s reporting on Iran.

Diplomatic Window Closing

European negotiators met with Iranian counterparts on Tuesday in Geneva in an eleventh-hour effort to avoid sanctions. The diplomats had expressed hope in advance, but two sources with knowledge of the matter told CNN that little progress was made.

Witkoff, the U.S. envoy to Iran, had been working in the runup to the conflict to hammer out a new deal. But he and the team he led left their post following the outbreak of hostilities.

The IAEA’s Grossi remained cautiously optimistic that the next month could allow for de-escalation. “Don’t forget that there is still time, even if there is the triggering thing, there is a month, and many things could happen,” he said.

For now, Iran faces pressure from the West and at home. Snapback’s end date is looming, and if the mechanism is set in motion, the next month will be crucial in deciding whether diplomacy lives on, or sanctions and confrontation chart the future of Iran’s nuclear program.