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The market for electric vehicles (EVs) has suffered some major speed bumps over the past year. For the first time since the market’s nascent recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, U.S. EV sales fell in August. After more than a year of consistent month-over-month growth, sales began to shrink in September. In recent months, car buyers have made clear that they have soured on both the Genesis GV70 and Volvo C40, forcing both companies to make major lineup changes.

The EV market has also suffered from political uncertainty under the current administration. The Biden White House recently cut subsidies for EVs and relaxed vehicle pollution standards, further reducing the federal government’s incentives for consumers to buy. But it may not be federal policy that slows EV adoption, according to industry analysts. The main problem may be in American garages.

The Trouble with Charging

Electric vehicle buyers have cited charging concerns as a major reason they do not own or buy one. For years, surveys have identified range anxiety as a major reason for not buying. A new analysis from Telemetry Vice President Sam Abuelsamid provides a unique window into the charging problem. The report identifies one major charging challenge that many analysts overlook: the simple act of parking in a garage.

The growing fast charging network has received much attention over the past year, but most EV charging still occurs at home. Analysts believe that up to 80 percent of all EV charging currently occurs using AC power. Moreover, the vast majority of home charging is at single-family residences. And even that figure may understate how many people could charge their EV. New research from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) found that 42 percent of homeowners already park within range of a level 2 (240 volt) charger outlet.

But if homeowners cleared some space and started parking in their garages, that number could more than double. With simple changes to how they parked, 68 percent of U.S. homeowners could park near an outlet suitable for EV charging. As Abuelsamid explains, “90 percent of all houses can add a 240 V outlet near where cars could be parked. Parking behavior, namely whether homeowners use a private garage for parking or storage, will likely become a key factor in EV adoption.”

A change in parking behavior could have a major impact. The number of homes with EV-ready garages could more than double, from 31 million to over 50 million. By combining these homes with those where running new wiring is possible, the total number of homes able to support charging rises to more than 72 million. This total would dwarf even Telemetry’s most bullish EV adoption scenario for 2035, which ranges from 33 million to 57 million vehicles.

One caveat to these findings is that new charging capacity on paper does not mean EV-ready homes in practice. NREL also found that almost 34 million homes would need significant electrical upgrades to support a level 2 charger. Level 2 chargers typically require at least 30 amps of power. In some cases, the electrical panel itself may need to be replaced.

Making these changes can easily run into the thousands of dollars. The cost of these upgrades not only complicates the long-term savings on electric vehicles but may make it difficult to recoup costs by selling home chargers. When these costs are added to the purchase price of an EV, the total cost of ownership can quickly become higher, even when using electricity for free.

Parking at Multifamily Dwellings Creates Challenges

Parking in single-family homes is just part of the story. In the U.S., 23 percent of people live in multifamily homes. This category includes apartments, condos, townhouses, co-ops, and more. In these buildings, residents do not usually have the authority to install chargers themselves. Instead, they have to ask for permission from the property owners, management companies, or co-op boards, which are not obligated to do so.

The installation process is often more complex and expensive, as well. A co-op may need a full panel upgrade before it could host two shared level 2 chargers, a project that could cost millions of dollars. Installing chargers may also be more expensive due to the need to run wiring to distant parking spots. These residents are also unlikely to be eligible for local or utility incentives that homeowners can often use to defray the cost of charger installation.

Today, around one million EV owners live in multifamily dwellings. Just 11 percent of these drivers park within range of an outlet suitable for EV charging. By 2035, a combination of state EV readiness requirements and inroads by electric utilities could increase this total. The Telemetry analysis projects that new multifamily construction will make between 40 and 50 percent of these spaces ready for chargers. Combined with buildings retrofitted for EVs, Telemetry estimates that between 6.7 million and 11.4 million such parking spaces could be charger-ready in multifamily residences by 2035. This total may still fall well short of the demand, however.

The Role of Public Charging Infrastructure

With space constraints in homes, public charging will play a major role in the U.S. market. Telemetry estimates that somewhere between 11.7 million and 14.3 million U.S. EV owners who live in houses will need to use public charging stations by 2035. Another 7.8 million to 8.1 million EV drivers will also live in multifamily residences and will also need public charging.

Meeting this demand will require a major expansion of U.S. charging infrastructure. Telemetry projects that between 523,000 and 586,000 DC fast chargers would be required to meet demand, along with another 1.5 million to 1.6 million level 2 chargers. But adding these stations will not be easy. Many U.S. power companies are already stretched, as data center operators have begun snapping up distribution capacity and new generation with their AI farms.

This complexity may create supply-demand imbalances. With supply adding at a fixed, measured pace, demand may well outstrip supply. This is one reason Telemetry forecasts a slight rise in the average national charging station utilization rate from 10.8 percent in 2022 to 12.1 percent in 2035.

The adoption of EVs has encountered some unanticipated challenges this year. Range anxiety is only part of the story. Simple parking habits, high electrical upgrade costs, and multifamily parking limitations may all have a big role to play in U.S. EV adoption. Even if public charging infrastructure is dramatically expanded, the demand for chargers may outpace supply over the next decade.

For now, one thing is clear: the future of EVs in the U.S. may depend as much on the way Americans use their garages as federal policy or automaker innovation.